Книга - How Can I Stop Climate Change: What is it and how to help

How Can I Stop Climate Change: What is it and how to help
Литагент HarperCollins


Don’t just sit there, do something. But what? How Can I Stop Climate Change? explains what climate change is and what you can do to stop it. Written by the experts at Friends of the Earth, it gives you the facts and figures and offers practical advice and simple solutions.What is happening and why?Learn to distinguish myth from fact and find out what the future holds, based on the scientific evidenceWhat are our options?Discover what works and what doesn’t – using cleaner fuels, saving energy, changing government policiesWhat can you do?Get advice on what you personally can do to make a real difference and help stop climate change






how can i stop

climate change?


Helen Burley and Chris Haslam









contents


Foreword (#u708d756d-1247-585b-a44f-0bc7a4806f58)by Tony Juniper, Friends of the Earth’s Executive (#u708d756d-1247-585b-a44f-0bc7a4806f58)Director (#u708d756d-1247-585b-a44f-0bc7a4806f58)



Chapter 1 (#u5ee5bb2d-6a43-5e8b-93e5-4f7cf570b606)The climate is changing around us (#u5ee5bb2d-6a43-5e8b-93e5-4f7cf570b606)



Chapter 2 (#u966e89ba-4e84-5bb9-9c43-6ea1c2629e7b)The science of climate change (#u966e89ba-4e84-5bb9-9c43-6ea1c2629e7b)



Chapter 3 (#ufecdcbd9-08e5-5682-8a2c-528e39d98372)How much carbon can we live with? (#ufecdcbd9-08e5-5682-8a2c-528e39d98372)



Chapter 4 (#u9bebd0bb-bed2-52d8-af16-3a9603708f03)Saving energy (#u9bebd0bb-bed2-52d8-af16-3a9603708f03)



Chapter 5 (#u94bacab0-1909-52ba-ba23-adc2389f4edc)Using cleaner energy (#u94bacab0-1909-52ba-ba23-adc2389f4edc)



Chapter 6 (#u7fde02dc-e619-582e-bade-6febbbf44910)How we can make change happen (#u7fde02dc-e619-582e-bade-6febbbf44910)



Chapter 7 (#uf037617f-f589-52bb-97f4-e277a1130a4f)In the home (#uf037617f-f589-52bb-97f4-e277a1130a4f)



Chapter 8 (#uca36e943-f8b4-5411-a3f7-1fc4935799a6)Out and about (#uca36e943-f8b4-5411-a3f7-1fc4935799a6)



Chapter 9 (#uf5020602-ed0f-59c2-bae8-7af971dce959)Scaling up your impact (#uf5020602-ed0f-59c2-bae8-7af971dce959)



Chapter 10 (#ub2ddc111-ec1c-58bb-a7a8-26690606d335)Resources (#ub2ddc111-ec1c-58bb-a7a8-26690606d335)

Find out more (#ulink_f866e3cb-a5cc-5d2a-a31b-2519dd8dc2b8)

Index (#uff5961b2-42a2-5fd0-9675-8e957d00a7bc)

How to join Friends of the Earth (#ue29ec083-aced-58ad-9ede-390bf958badd)

Acknowledgements (#ud05ad132-8011-507e-bb81-8c95e216f55b)

Copyright (#u83afad7e-bbf4-5481-bb15-884a39a42235)

About the Publisher (#uc4741811-749c-5f8e-b1a4-1b37b9d43f7b)





foreword (#u7b0d5c0d-3410-57a3-bc01-255b46870878)


“I was recently at the launch of the new high-speed rail link from London to Paris. Passengers boarded at eleven in the morning and arrived right in the heart of Paris just 180 minutes later. As the train slipped through the autumn countryside of southern England and northern France people talked face to face, read the morning papers and ate and drank in comfort and quiet. The people on Eurostar’s Tread Lightly might not have known it but they were also doing the planet a favour. Each passenger going from London to Paris by train is creating just a tenth of the climate-changing emissions of someone making the journey by aeroplane.

For me that day was a moment of inspiration, a reminder of how humanity’s technical brilliance, plus a dose of common sense, can take us - literally - to places we once thought impossible.

This book is about a better life. It’s about turning the challenge of climate change into a way forward for us all, and coming out on the other side healthier, fitter and happier. And because we need to do something now, rather than in 40 years’ time, it’s about making that journey at high speed.

Our starting point is the science - what’s happening to our world and why. The story has been brilliantly told by others, notably by the Nobel prize-winning scientists who make up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former US vice-president Al Gore. We explain some key facts - about what’s going on, and what’s likely to happen if we let it (Chapters 1 to 3) - before moving on to the big question: what are we going to do about it?

Imagine a home that you don’t need to heat because the sun does it for you. Imagine your fridge running on the never-ending power of the tides that beat at Britain’s shores. Imagine buses so reliable and clean you actually want to leave the car at home. Imagine the end of fuel poverty, better food, fewer traffic jams and happier neighbourhoods. Imagine a new economic wave, new jobs in new industries supplying whole new markets. All this happens to be possible because the things that we need to do to stop climate change (read about them in Chapters 4 to 9) will also improve our quality of life.

The solutions are out there, but who’s going to make them happen? From fitting low-energy light bulbs, to flying less and recycling more, there are many things each of us can do (lots of practical information in Chapters 7 to 9). Among the green self-help manuals around encouraging each of us to do our bit to take the stress off the planet, few make this key point: that even if each of us were to deal with the environmental impact of our home, our travel and our shopping, it would still not be enough. Yes I can turn off the lights but I don’t run the polluting power station that makes the electricity. I can use my car less but why should I, if some gas guzzler is allowed to take up my space on the road? I can insulate my loft and even install solar panels on my house but what about my neighbour who can’t afford it, and what about my kids’ school, which uses far more energy than my family does?

Most climate-changing pollution is outside my direct control. Greenhouse gases are just part of how things work – like the way food is produced, public institutions are run, our roads are built. I can directly control only about a third of my own tiny share of Britain’s carbon footprint. Someone has got to change the way things work on a big scale - and fast. In fact the science implies that the UK should cut its emissions of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, by at least 80 per cent by the middle of this century. When you think about how dependent we are now on oil, gas and coal, this looks like a huge task. Who’s going to do it?

As consumers we have a certain amount of muscle – and we should use it. Nagging our shops and services for greener stuff helps to push them in the right direction: being an ethical consumer also tells the politicians that we’re ready for change.



But we’re not just shoppers. Each of us is part of a family, neighbourhood, or town. We can talk to our friends and family, get things done in our clubs, societies, schools, unions, and associations to reduce their carbon footprint.

Most important, we have rights and a voice as citizens. We can tell our elected representatives – from the town hall to parliament – that we want a greener life. They should get on and make it easier for all of us to do the low-carbon thing. Governments can ban cars with poor fuel consumption, set tough standards for products and provide alternatives to flying. Governments can structure markets to make companies innovate: obliging local authorities to specify clean green energy for all new homes, for example, would create a huge business opportunity and, as other countries have shown, do a lot to cut emissions.

But this scale of change will only happen if enough of us ask for it. When I joined the staff of Friends of the Earth in 1990 one of the first things I did was to promote our findings on how halting deforestation would be good for the climate. Since then we have notched up a series of wins for the environment. We have put green issues firmly on the political agenda, sought broad changes to the way our economy works and persuaded politicians to take real steps to protect our communities and future generations. And we’ve always done it with strong public backing: the reason you have doorstep recycling is because thousands of people like you asked for it.

At about the time this book will first appear in the shops a new Climate Change Act will be passing into UK law. This will be the world’s first legally binding national framework for long-term reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. If the government has done its job properly the law will set a target for cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, including emissions from aviation and shipping. Friends of the Earth’s Big Ask campaign and the voices of hundreds of thousands of people have been crucial in securing this breakthrough. It shows how powerful we are when we act together. In all my years working on the environment I have never been so excited about the changes that we’re about to see – changes that people like you have made possible. There’s a lot do, but we are making real progress.

The book in your hands is one of the next steps. It is the perfect companion for making the most of the opportunity created by the new Climate Change Act. The solutions are out there. Get on board and make them live.

None of us can deal with climate change alone - we have to act together. How can I stop climate change? I can’t. But we can.



Tony Juniper, Executive Director, Friends of the Earth, 2002–08.




FRIENDS OF THEEARTH


“The honest answer to the question ‘How can I stop climate change?’ is ‘I can’t. But we can.’”

Executive director,Tony Juniper



chapter 1 (#u7b0d5c0d-3410-57a3-bc01-255b46870878)




the climate is changing around us (#u7b0d5c0d-3410-57a3-bc01-255b46870878)


Flood, drought, storm, heatwave.

What’s happening to the weather?




a warmer world


Even without the scientists telling us, we can all see a newpattern emerging: freaky weather, unusual temperatures,ice sheets crashing into the sea, migrating birds turningup ahead of schedule, plants flowering early…

From the UK and Europe to Australia and theAmericas, this chapter offers some snapshots of the wayour planet is changing around – and because of – us.

The graph below showsthe global temperature foreach year from 1850 to2006. Climate experts use14 °C as a reference point.The wavy line reveals theunmistakeable trend –that the world has beengetting hotter over thepast 150 years.

As surely as the Wimbledon tennis tournament brings rain, fresh strawberries say lazy summer sunshine. But in 2007 you were more likely to be eating strawberries at Easter than in June. A bizarrely hot spring meant they were ripe and ready to pick by April. Too early for Wimbledon. Too early for the students who normally pick them. And too early for the strawberry farmers who employ the students.

The last time April in England was as warm as in 2007 Abraham Lincoln was still alive and Lewis Carroll was polishing

Global warming: the hard data



off Alice in Wonderland. It followed an unusually mild January, February and March. Frogspawn thrived in garden ponds in February, and insects like peacock butterflies, bumblebees and ladybirds appeared earlier than usual. Then came what looked like being the wettest summer in the UK since the outbreak of the First World War.

As England basked in its April sunshine Spain was doused in unseasonal rain, with disastrous consequences as salad crops were flooded, leading to soaring tomato prices. And then, while the UK saw flooding, Europe flipped into yet another heat wave.

Of course our weather is changeable – it always has been. One hot day doesn’t make a summer, and a few record temperatures don’t necessarily prove that the world’s climate is in the throes of fundamental change. But average temperatures are definitely rising – as worldwide records clearly show. And we are now seeing the very kinds of changes to weather patterns and the Earth’s natural systems, habitats and wildlife that scientists have for years been predicting will flow from global warming.




weird UK weather facts








three need-to-know terms


Greenhouse effect: How the Earth keeps warm. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap heat from the sun, raising the temperature down here. Without greenhouse gases, our planet would be too cold to support most life.



Global warming: The way the average temperature on the Earth’s surface is increasing. Scientific evidence clearly shows an increase of greenhouse gases is largely to blame.



Man-made warming: Greenhouse gases – the main ones are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and water vapour – are naturally present in the Earth’s atmosphere. The amount of greenhouse gases has remained relatively stable for thousands of years, but in the past century they have increased sharply. This is largely as a result of burning fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas, which produces carbon dioxide.




five myths about climate change


‘The Earth is so big that human beings cannotpossibly affect it.’Fact: While the Earth has for millions of years been capable of balancing emissions of carbon dioxide – with plants, soil and sea soaking up the carbon dioxide emitted by nature – the extra carbon dioxide that humans have put into the system has upset the balance. The atmosphere is surprisingly thin: if the Earth were the size of a football the atmosphere would be no thicker than a coat of varnish.



‘Scientists don’t agree that climate change iscaused by humans.’Fact: A 2004 study of 900 published papers on climate change found they all agreed that climate change was happening and was caused by human activity. There are some sceptics – but the fiercest arguments today tend to focus on the scale of the problem and the best way to tackle it rather than whether or not climate change is happening at all.



‘We have to choose between the economy andsaving the planet.’Fact: There is no such choice – in the long term, without a stable climate there will be no economy to save: the impacts on society of runaway climate change would be catastrophic. Keeping climate change in check will involve developing new technologies and industries and this will have economic benefits; and although investing in such opportunities has a cost, the cost of not dealing with climate change will be higher.

‘It’s too late to do anything about climatechange.’Fact: Some climate change is already happening. But it will get much worse if we let it. The more greenhouse gases we allow into the atmosphere, the greater the effect on our climate will be. Scientists warn that we are approaching tipping points that will trigger ever-more rapid changes to the climate, so the sooner we act, the better.



‘Bring it on. The UK’s climate will be much warmer – life here will be better.’ Fact: Britain is likely to be warmer and some people may welcome that. But we’re also likely to see heavier rain, flooding and storms, as well as heat waves and drought in the summer. Water shortages have already hit the southeast of England. Impacts elsewhere will come sooner and harder, and the UK is likely to feel the knock-on effects – as places become inhospitable, crops fail and huge numbers of people are uprooted.




climate change is already affecting us


As climate systems adapt to changes in temperature, winds and ocean currents alter. This is leading to unpredictable and more extreme weather: more intense periods of heavy rain, more storms, and, in some regions, extreme drought. Climate change is having other knock-on effects. Rising temperatures are melting snow and ice all over the world: glaciers are retreating, Arctic ice sheets are shrinking and Antarctic ice shelves have cracked and fallen into the sea. Melting glaciers, combined with the fact that warmer water expands, are causing rising sea levels. Sea levels rose by 17 cm during the 20th century.

Many people’s lives are already being altered by climate change. Some are adapting, but others face real hardship.

Let’s look at some of the specific ways that climate change is affecting our planet.




rain and storms


Four people died and thousands had to evacuate their homes when torrential rain hit England in June 2007, causing flash floods, chaos to travel and billions of pounds worth of damage. A month later the heavy rains returned, leaving a swathe of central England under water. The Severn and Avon rivers flooded thousands of homes; the Thames burst its banks in Oxford and flowed into nearby villages. Roads were closed and train services failed. Between May and July twice as much rain as normal fell, breaking records going back to 1766.

Although unusual, the summer floods of 2007 were not entirely without precedent. Back in 1920 the River Lud in Lincolnshire burst its banks, washing away bridges, houses and cars in the small market town of Louth; 23 people died. Homes and businesses in Louth were under water again in 2007.




A RIVER RUNS THROUGH IT:


Tewkesbury in Gloucestershire got a taste of a future with climate change in the summer of 2007 – among the wettest ever for many communities across Britain.



It’s impossible to pin the blame for one weather event on climate change. But scientists say our changing climate is making such extremes more likely.

Yet the UK experience to date has been relatively mild. In August 2002 floods swept central Europe: Germany had a record-breaking 35 cm of rain in 24 hours and in Dresden, water levels of the River Elbe reached their highest since records began in 1275. In 2005 more than 65 cm of rain fell in Mumbai, India, in 24 hours – the country’s heaviest ever recorded rainfall. In China torrential summer rains in 2007 affected an estimated 100 million people and hundreds died in flash flooding and landslides. In South Asia millions fled their homes and thousands died after heavy monsoon rain caused flooding in parts of Northern India, Nepal and Bangladesh. In Assam 90 cm of rain fell in 20 days, flooding farmland.




hurricanes, cyclones and monsoons


Hurricanes over the Atlantic during the summer are nothing new. But the 2005 season made many people think about climate change again. Hurricane Katrina, which tore through New Orleans in August that year, was not the most powerful of the storms, but it did the most damage. Nearly 2,000 people died and many thousands lost their homes – and this in the world’s richest country.

More recently hundreds died in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India in 2007 when Cyclone Yemyin hit the region. The disaster was made worse by heavy monsoon rains bringing severe flooding.




melting glaciers and ice sheets


Rising temperatures are damaging the major ice sheets at the Poles. In Greenland, which is warming faster than other parts of the world, vast glacial rivers are cutting through the ice. In the summer of 2007 sea ice shrank to a record low, with an area twice the size of Britain disappearing in the space of a week. Scientists predict that by 2030 the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer.

Generations of Inuit in the Arctic Circle have depended on hunting and fishing to feed their families, but changes in the sea ice make navigation difficult and hunting on thin ice perilous. Experienced hunters have died where the ice has given way.




THAW POINT:


Argentina’s Perito Moreno Glacier is one of the few that are not retreating because of global warming. But for how much longer?

Aqqaluk Lynge, President of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, Greenland, says, ‘Climate change in the Arctic is not just an environmental issue with unwelcome economic consequences. It is a matter of livelihood, food, and individual and cultural survival. The Arctic is not wilderness or a frontier, it is our home and homeland.’

Further south, in the semi-frozen areas of Alaska and Siberia, thawing of the once-permanently frozen ground is turning solid foundations for buildings and roads into soft bog. Houses are sinking as the land subsides.

Warmer weather is also causing problems for Europe’s snowy regions and the people who live and work there. Alpine glaciers are in retreat and snow is arriving later and melting earlier in the year. Alpine glaciers shrank by 10 per cent in 2003 alone. Germany’s last glacier, the Zugspitze, which provides drinking water for the Rhine Valley, is melting so rapidly that people in the area have tried to protect it from the sun by covering it with canvas.




a lifetime of change


Fernand Pareau has been an Alpine mountain guide in Chamonix, France, for more than 50 years. Aged 81 in 2007, he has witnessed huge changes, including more tourists and more traffic in the mountains.

He says the natural environment has altered, with a shift in the seasons, and changes in snowfall. Whereas there were once four distinct seasons, now winter comes late and summer comes sooner. Birds like magpies – previously not seen at such altitudes – are now common.

‘It’s not beautiful anymore, because when you’re in Chamonix, you look at the Bosson Glacier… it’s black, so it’s not beautiful. You see the waterfalls there but it’s not white anymore, it’s ugly,’ says Fernand. ‘I think that for the future, if global warming continues like this, people will come to the mountains much less.’




melting in the Himalaya


It’s common to talk about glaciers ‘retreating’. They are of course melting, and have been doing so for a long time. But the rapid speed of melting today is causing problems.

In 1985 Norbu Sherpa’s family home, his fields and animals in the Nepalese Himalaya were swept away by an outburst from the Dig Tsho glacial lake. He had been training to be a monk but after the family lost everything, he gave up his religious calling to work as a trekking guide. Today he and his family are still rebuilding their lives. ‘Those were the most distressing hours of my life,’ Norbu glacial lakes. In the Everest region glaciers Sherpa says.

There are more than 3,000 glaciers in the Nepalese Himalaya, most feeding into retreated by up to 60 m between 1970 and 1989. As the glaciers retreat, water levels in the lakes rise. A study for the United Nations Environment Programme warned that more than 20 lakes in the Himalayas are potentially dangerous because of climate change – at risk of bursting their banks.

The retreat of Himalayan glaciers also poses a threat to the millions of people in India and across Asia who rely on snow and glacial melt for their water; scientists think that in 20-30 years these supplies will be greatly reduced.




LEAVING HOME TO THE WAVES:


‘When I was a small boy this island was big. As I grew older the island got smallerAs you can see the island has broken and it’s now in two pieces. The sea is eating theisland away.’Jacob Tsomi, chief of the Dog clan, Carteret Islands



The Carteret Islands – a small horseshoe of atolls in the Pacific Ocean – form part of Papua New Guinea. Their once-fertile vegetable gardens are now all poisoned by salt. Lying less than 1.5 metres above sea level, the islands are frequently flooded by tidal surges. Bernard Tunim, who lives on Piul Island, describes the effects of a tidal surge: ‘We planted banana, taro, even tapioca, cassava and other fruit trees. But just last month we had these high tides and it swept the whole area. We had waves coming from three sides, and so this place was flooded with sea water. All that we had from banana to taro and cassava just dried up. But we don't want to move because we know that this is our own land.’

Bernard says the islanders are angry at the prospect of having to leave their home – victims of a problem they are not responsible for. ‘We believe that these islands are ours and our future generation should not go away from this island.’




rising rivers


Seasonal flooding is a way of life for people on the flood plains of Bangladesh; but recent years have seen a combination of heavy monsoons, deforestation and faster glacial melting swelling the rivers. Andean villagers in Peru face a similar threat: it’s estimated that some 30,000 people have died as a result of sudden glacial floods. Disappearance of the ice also poses a threat to the water supply for the 7 million people who live in Lima.




rising seas


The coastlines of Vietnam and Bangladesh, small islands in the Pacific and Caribbean, and large coastal cities such as Tokyo, New York, Cairo and London are all threatened by rising seas.

Flood defences such as the London Thames Barrier can provide some protection – at a cost. The £535 million barrier was designed to offer protection against highly infrequent but dangerous storm surges. It had been used 103 times by 2007.

The impacts of higher seas are well known: high tides and storm surges come further and further inland, damaging property, washing away roads, contaminating fresh water and making it difficult for anything to grow. The low-lying Pacific island Tuvalu now depends on imported food and its people are seeking refugee status in neighbouring New Zealand as the sea takes over their homes.

Thames Barrier, 1983–2007




wildfires


Hot, dry weather increases the risk of wildfire. In recent years wildfires have rampaged through southern Europe, Australia, California and the Amazon.

Wildfires can improve conditions for vegetation and encourage wildlife. But with dry weather and strong winds they can also burn out of control. As temperatures rise, northern California is predicted to see wildfires increase by up to 90 per cent by the end of the century. In 2007 Greece experienced some of the worst wildfires ever recorded in the country, destroying forests around Olympia and scorching stones that have been there for 2,500 years. Sixty-five people died in a spate of fires over a ten-day period.

Britain’s moorlands, particularly peat bogs in the Peak District, are vulnerable. In the summer of 2003 satellite images showed clouds of smoke drifting from the moors over the Irish Sea. Aircraft at Manchester Airport were unable to land and drivers kept their headlights on during the day for several days.

Scientists pin the blamefor an increase in wildfiresin the western UnitedStates on risingtemperatures (below).

Forest in flames




where we’re feeling the heat


Climate scientists predict that with summers becoming hotter and drier in some regions, there will be more cases of extreme drought. Here’s how different parts of the world are already being affected.

By 2100 – within the lifetimes of our grandchildren – half of he world’s land could see reduced rainfall, causing drought.




record-breaking temperatures in the UK


Temperatures in central England have increased on average by 1°C since 1960, and individual months are getting warmer year by year.

People are feeling it. The heat wave of summer 2003 killed more than 2,000 people in the UK, and in 2006 a heat wave led to a shortage of grazing land for dairy herds, pushing up the costs of milk production. A 2006 survey of farmers found 60 per cent claiming that they were already feeling the effects of climate change. In some parts of southern England farmers are introducing crops once thought more appropriate to more exotic climes, including apricots, sunflowers and maize. Olives are thriving in Devon and English wines are gaining fans as growing conditions become more suitable. But not all fruits are benefiting – milder winters are not very good for blackcurrants, for example, which need cold weather to bear fruit. And drier summers mean that more and more fruit farmers are having to irrigate their crops.




heat waves in Europe


The past decade has seen chaotic weather across Europe. A heat wave in 2003 contributed to the death of an estimated 35,000 people across the continent, prompting experts to call it one of the deadliest climate-related disasters in Western history. Financially the damage was estimated at more than 13 billion euros. Harvests were badly hit and in France six power stations had to close because of low water levels in the rivers used for cooling systems.

And it appears 2003 was not an exception: temperatures again hit record highs of 46°C in south-east Europe in 2007, contributing to the deaths of more than 500 people in Hungary. According to climate experts, summers like 2003 are likely to become more and more common.




CURRANT CONCERN:


Fruits such as apple, strawberry, and blackcurrant need a sustained cold period to flower and fruit normally. But winters are becoming progressively milder – worrying times for the UK’s £230 million-a-year fruit industry.




English wine – treading new ground


Total area of vineyards in production in the UK

Source: Indicators of Climate Change in the UK (ICCUK)

The expansion of English and Welsh vineyards, although not attributable to climate change alone, shows the impact of warmer summers, market forces and wine-makers’ expectations of global warming within our lifetime.




have potatoes had their chips?


Walter Simon has been growing potatoes in Pembrokeshire, Wales, for more than 20 years. Farming has altered in that time, he says, as a result of changes in the weather. Planting happens earlier, and the harvest comes earlier too. Walter concedes that milder winters have made life on the farm easier in some ways – outside pipes no longer need lagging and the sheds where he lays out the potatoes for seed no longer have to be proofed against draughts. Now his main worry is making sure the sheds get enough ventilation to keep them cool.

Walter grows early potatoes and relies on irrigation to water his crop, but he worries about growing seasons extending elsewhere in the country. An earlier harvest in the east of England, for example, could push him out of the market. In 20 years’ time, he says, they probably won’t be growing potatoes in Pembrokeshire. ‘We’ll be growing apricots or something,’ he suggests. ‘But it is the speed of the change that concerns people. It’s not been as gradual an evolution as things may have been in the past.’




down under gets a roasting


In the space of just five years, 2002-2006, Australia suffered three of its worst droughts on record. ‘A frightening glimpse of the future with global warming’ was how South Australia’s Premier, Mike Rann, described the 2006 drought.

In South West Australia annual total rainfall has declined by some 15-20 per cent in the past 30 years. As elsewhere an early casualty is farming. Harvests have been failing completely or drastically reduced. Rice production has plunged by more than 90 per cent during the past decade. Irrigated crops such as citrus and vines are particularly vulnerable as water levels decline (grape production fell by nearly a third in 2007).

The high temperatures are having some more bizarre consequences. Players at the Australian Open tennis tournament in 2007 had to abandon the outside courts during the day because it was too hot. They restarted in the evening and went on into the night – one match ended at 3 am.




BREAK POINT:


Global warming affects our world from top to bottom, including sporting events such as the Australian Open, where 40 °C+ daytime temperatures forced night time play in 2006.




farming in a drier world


Farmer Alan Brown has survived ten years of below-average rainfall in New South Wales, Australia. In 2006 he had his worst year to date when, for the second time, his harvest completely failed.

An established farmer with 900 hectares of land and a mixture of sheep, cattle and winter crops, Alan says, ‘Everything I have revolves around the value of my land – and if my land is not producing, it isn’t worth anything.’ With less and less grazing available, Alan has taken to hand-feeding the animals for up to eight months of the year (he would normally do this for only three).

Winter rains are crucial in New South Wales. Moisture does not remain in the soil for long, and when winter rains fail, the outlook is dire, particularly for farmers who depend on irrigation. The financial effects are being felt in the wider community. Villages that once supported several shops and services are down to just one general store. Parents are finding it cheaper to move their children to cities for schooling – thus splitting the family. Alan worries that Australia is witnessing a prolonged drying, symptomatic of climate change. ‘If we are going to survive in a drier environment, we need plants that can survive with less water. It’s not something that we have bred for in the past.’




drying up in the Amazon


Covering an area of more than 2 million square miles, and home to a third of all animal species, the Amazon rainforest has been described as the Earth’s lungs. It absorbs vast quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, releasing oxygen and playing a crucial role in keeping our climate on an even keel.

But as our planet warms, this great natural resource is at risk from long periods of dry weather. In 2005 water in the Amazon River was so low that sections were impassable by boat. The Brazilian army was called in to distribute water and food, and big ships were left stranded. In one state alone, fire laid waste to 100,000 hectares of forest – an area two-thirds the size of Greater London. Scientists estimate that burning in the Amazon adds some 370 million tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every year.




did you know?


Some scientists sayclimate change isaffecting the frequencyof El Niño – the occasionalreversal of the weatherover the Pacific region.This phenomenon has ahuge influence on weathersystems around the world.During El Niño floodingbecomes more likely onthe Pacific coast of theAmericas and cold waterfish supplies disappear.




the spreading desert


Dust storms are common in China when the wind blows. In northern China once-fertile land is being destroyed as the heat and lack of water kill vegetation. The dry soil quickly turns to dust. Dust and dried-up soil are whipped up from dry areas in the north of the country and move in clouds that can travel enormous distances – some have reached as far as Vladivostok in Russia.




GREEN WALL OF CHINA:


Specially planted shrubs will form part of a 700 km live barrier, intended to hold back inner Mongolia’s desertification and prevent dust storms disrupting the 2008 Olympics in nearby Beijing.

In South Korea massive dust storms blowing over the border from China were so bad in 2002 that primary schools had to be closed. The storms, which have already cost China more than US $2 billion a year in lost land and productivity, threaten the livelihood of at least 170 million people, and are increasing in frequency. There are even fears that they could blight the 2008 Beijing Olympics. More than 30 per cent of the total land area of China is now being affected by desertification.

Indeed a third of the Earth’s land surface is vulnerable to desertification. Over-grazing and damaging irrigation schemes have already taken their toll, but climate change may be the final straw for such areas. According to the United Nations, desertification could drive 50 million people from their homes in the next ten years.




is California’s fruit bowl drying out?


It’s not only the poorest farmers who are losing out from climate change. California’s agriculture industry is worth an estimated US $30 billion and employs more than 1 million workers. The most populous state in the United States, California has a varied climate, from snowy mountains to desert heat, and the region is no stranger to extremes of weather. But global warming is likely to make those extremes much worse.

Fruit-growers know how sensitive trees are to changes in temperature. The trees need a cold period to allow buds to set, and then a steady warm period for fruit to grow. In hot weather fruit matures more quickly, producing earlier harvests and smaller fruit. Californian grapes are vulnerable to high temperatures, which can lead to premature ripening that affects the quality of the wine. The problems facing US farmers are recognised by Government. The US Congress in 2007 approved a US $3 billion agricultural disasters relief fund, specifically for farmers affected by weather events.




on the grapevine


You may have drunk wines from California’s Napa Valley – it’s home to some of the New World’s finest.

Annie Favia has been working in Napa’s wine industry for more than ten years and says the changes in the climate are there to see. ‘I can’t say specifically that it is climate change, but it is definitely getting warmer,’ she says. ‘You get these heat spikes when you get scorching temperatures and they can last for up to a week at a time. The hot weather burns the fruit. The sugar level in the grape goes up before the fruit is ready and the result is you get higher and higher levels of alcohol.’

Annie and her husband Andy Erickson are small-scale producers, making up to 800 cases a year for the high end of the wine market: a bottle of Favia sells for between US $50 and US $500. Annie has tried to protect the grapes from the scorching temperatures, installing micro-sprinklers that spray a fine mist and keep the temperatures down. ‘We are using irrigation a lot more,’ she says. ‘So far it hasn’t been a problem for us, but there are a couple of regions in Napa that are water-deficient.’

More than 80 per cent of agriculture in California depends on irrigation, mainly fed by snow melt in the mountains. But snowfall is predicted to decline by anything from 30 to 90 per cent by the end of the century, leaving growers at the mercy of unreliable rain. ‘We are way out of control,’ says Annie. ‘We are changing things and we do not know what is going to happen. That is pretty scary.’




climate crisis in Africa


Farming is the backbone of most African economies. Four out of five Africans live in the countryside and farm or keep livestock for their livelihoods. As extreme weather hits the continent some of the world’s poorest people are bearing the brunt of climatic shifts. Eastern and Southern Africa have been badly affected by changes in rainfall. Until recently the rainy season would normally arrive in April and May but it hasn’t done so since 2002. Rivers and irrigation canals are running dry.

According to development agencies such as Christian Aid many people in rural areas are living on the edge of starvation. As temperatures rise, declining crop yields could leave hundreds of millions unable to produce or purchase enough food. In 2006 nearly 4 million

people in Kenya needed emergency food aid and millions of cattle perished following three consecutive years of failed rains. Lack of rain and grazing for animals is destroying the way of life for cattle-herders, fishermen and farmers, who find themselves competing and sometimes in conflict over a dwindling resource. Without food or crops to sell, people are struggling. Those with livestock or access to pasture have to defend it from those without. In northern Kenya, shepherds carry automatic rifles. Others survive only with the help of food aid. Some turn to the towns and cities in search of an alternative living, often leaving children with grandparents to work the land.




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The early impacts of climate change are being felt by the people least responsible for bringing it on. The IPCC predicts mounting pressure on water resources, and a halving of yields from rain-fed agriculture for some African countries by 2020.




water shortages in Kenya


‘When I was young there were grazing fields, water, milk, blood and meat,’ says Lore Kapisa who heads a family of 20 in Turkana, Kenya. ‘But we have seen huge changes over the past ten years: our livestock have died, our grazing fields have shrunk and our water dried up.’ The people in Turkana have lived in the arid terrain in the north-west corner of Kenya by farming animals. Lore has struggled for the past ten years because of relentless drought. As water and pasture become scarcer, disputes between neighbouring groups are spiralling into violence and Lore now carries an automatic rifle to protect his herd. But rather than food aid Lore wants water, pasture and a vet. This, he says, would enable them to continue their traditional ways of life. ‘We have been sick and without food, but we are human beings capable of being productive. Food aid creates dependency and reduces us to lesser human beings.’





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